Post by ehsanulh125 on Jan 9, 2024 7:02:52 GMT
There is a good chance that there is agreement worldwide that it would be good to live in a greener, more sustainable economic and social system. The big question is how to arrive at such an optimal (more) state of the world, and what might have to be given up for this, what are the consequences of the transition? A recent BIS study, written by Alberto Americo, Jesse Johal and Christian Upper, helps to navigate these questions.The energy transition and its macroeconomic effects” with the title. The study shows how the energy transition will have profound and different impacts around the world, with a particular focus on how the development of clean technologies – mainly wind and solar energy and electric vehicles – present challenges and opportunities for the green transition in terms of essential minerals.
Unsurprisingly, the researchers conclude Buy Bulk SMS Service that fossil fuel producers are likely to be hit hard by the green transition, with countries extracting the minerals needed for the new technologies expected to be large net beneficiaries of the process, while importers—that is, most of the world— depending on their economic structure and energy mix, the changes may have different effects. This train of thought starts from the fact that the green transition is associated with a "commodity market supercycle" - which may have already started in part, butthat's not sure either. Let's start with what is a commodity supercycle? It is a price movement that covers an extended period of boom and bust in commodity markets, when prices fall significantly above or below levels determined by long-term trends. These movements can even outlast business cycles and typically persist for well over a decade.
The most recent upward phase began in the early 2000s and ended with the financial crisis of 2008, but according to many, the last 2-3 years represent the beginning of another supercycle or, if not, then the long-term upward trend in prices will soon begin. Indeed, everything seems to be in place for the increase in raw material prices associated with green technology. According to the BIS, the rise of wind and solar energy far exceeded expectations in the last decade, and the advantage of renewable energy sources will only increase in the coming decades: the costs of wind energy may decrease by an additional 17-29 percent by 2030, while the unit costs of solar energy may decrease by 40-60 percent. Compared to 2020. In light of this, it is not surprising that the prices of raw materials associated with the green transition, although volatile, are rising in a trend-like fashion.
Unsurprisingly, the researchers conclude Buy Bulk SMS Service that fossil fuel producers are likely to be hit hard by the green transition, with countries extracting the minerals needed for the new technologies expected to be large net beneficiaries of the process, while importers—that is, most of the world— depending on their economic structure and energy mix, the changes may have different effects. This train of thought starts from the fact that the green transition is associated with a "commodity market supercycle" - which may have already started in part, butthat's not sure either. Let's start with what is a commodity supercycle? It is a price movement that covers an extended period of boom and bust in commodity markets, when prices fall significantly above or below levels determined by long-term trends. These movements can even outlast business cycles and typically persist for well over a decade.
The most recent upward phase began in the early 2000s and ended with the financial crisis of 2008, but according to many, the last 2-3 years represent the beginning of another supercycle or, if not, then the long-term upward trend in prices will soon begin. Indeed, everything seems to be in place for the increase in raw material prices associated with green technology. According to the BIS, the rise of wind and solar energy far exceeded expectations in the last decade, and the advantage of renewable energy sources will only increase in the coming decades: the costs of wind energy may decrease by an additional 17-29 percent by 2030, while the unit costs of solar energy may decrease by 40-60 percent. Compared to 2020. In light of this, it is not surprising that the prices of raw materials associated with the green transition, although volatile, are rising in a trend-like fashion.